Affiliates, Search & Denial
I woke this morning thinking to myself, “is this industry in complete denial?” Four things converged to trigger this thought.
1) Jim Zarley’s (CEO of Valueclick) comments still haunt me from the last earnings call.
“Affiliates were anticipating this change and many were already complying with Overture’s similar long-standing affiliate policy.”
2) Adam Viener’s defensive comments on The Top 10 Ways to Repel Super Affiliates from your Program
3) This mini-search industry correction that may have started happening this week.
SEND IN THE PROBE
As I see it, it’s time to send in a probe when:
- ValueClick tells the world not to worry by suggesting that “nothing is moving *that* fast”
- High profile “super affiliates” continue to try to exact change by creating presentations/blogging their frustrations in the form of negative suggestions
- Suddenly the investment world begins to question valuations of search companies (valued anywhere from 10 to 20X earnings) as rumors re: various forms of click and impression fraud suddenly seem worth considering
I’d like to spend this entry discussing Adam’s comments. Candidly, I don’t see them being a helpful guide for affiliate managers so much as I see them as a cry for help. Adam longs for the way life used to be – when marketers were beyond lazy and, in fact, frightened of search. I think Adam’s voice resonates with a great number of others like him so perhaps there is an audience but I doubt that it’s affiliate managers or their superiors. A list of “10 things you don’t understand” is a curious yet typical approach.
So… what are the issues behind Adam’s comments that are important indicators for investors? The fact remains, there’s a war on between search and affiliate marketing… and understanding the details is critical given the amount of affiliate marketing that is, in effect, search marketing. While Google remains active in doing battle on many fronts one of it’s primary (yet completely un-discussed) challenges is to wean itself off of affiliate and shift to direct-to-customer revenues.
THE ISSUES
Adam tackles poor communications, passing out coupons and offers in an un-streamlined manner and other things but I will skip right to the good stuff. He uses his platform to remind everyone that affiliates are valuable over and over. He repeats himself and does what I see happening behind the scenes quite a bit: propping up search-focused affiliates as marketers continue to run the other way.
Pay-Per-Click Search affiliate pay for every click and often lose money. That is important, so let me repeat it. THEY OFTEN LOSE MONEY.
So… feel bad, marketers and if you don’t… well… then you just don’t know the value of a “pure performance” sales force. When things are great in life, you typically don’t need to convince people they’re great, right? That’s for them to decide. If marketers think that relying less on affiliates (most of whom they have never spoken to, do not and/or cannot know) turns them on so be it. If giving search to SEM agencies like Performics makes them happy… great. Maybe affiliates need to consider working at affiliate/SEM networks and stop working as an affiliate. But that kind of progress is not natural to a maturing industry. In fact, that would be un-American (say the affiliates). No, I’m not kidding… they say that.
He goes on to give examples of how things work in click arbitrage and concludes:
This merchant either needs to drastically improve their conversion rates or pay a lot more in commissions to make the relationship work. Merchants must do the math, and understand these metrics to make sure affiliates have room to bid and be profitable.
They do? You see, this is what I call the inalienable Right to Bid that affiliates hold… and it doesn’t stop there. The Right to Bid is all encompassing and includes trademarks for this is the only means that affiliates can gauge if they should conduct further search arbitrage for marketers.
Translation (and don’t let anyone tell it to you otherwise): If affiliates can make a bunch of easy money on trademarked terms (intercepting customers bound for the e-commerce Web site) they can afford to experiment at buying other non-trademarked terms that might work (take on risk). How can they do this? That’s right… using the money they’ve got laying around from the fat profit they just made bidding on trademarked terms. Not only have you bought them dinner at McCormick and Schmidt, they had enough left over to shoot craps!
At the end of the day, all of this is propped up on “Mr. Marketer, you don’t know search and never will… therefore, I have the Right to Bid.”
Don’t forget… this is the most cost effective online marketing strategy out there. Given a litany of easily explained yet “behind the scenes” phenomenon that happen every day we can see the fat that exists and is aching to be sliced away. Where will it fall to? How long can we remain in denial?
These are the signs of war… war between advertisers/marketers and their affiliates and that, friends, translates to risky times ahead for affiliate marketing companies. How are they mitigating the risk? Indeed, by becoming the affiliate as Performics did years ago… but how’s that process going lately?
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http://www.anycoupons.com David Lewis
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Wayne Porter
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http://www.molanderassoc.com Jeff Molander
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http://www.StopScum.com/ Steve Shubitz
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http://www.anycoupons.com David Lewis
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http://www.goyami.com Adam Viener
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http://www.birthdayexpress.com Jeff Nienaber
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Wayne Porter
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http://www.StopScum.com/ Steve Shubitz
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http://www.molanderassoc.com Jeff Molander
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http://www.birthdayexpress.com Jeff Nienaber
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http://www.StopScum.com/ Steve Shubitz
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http://www.goyami.com Adam Viener
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http://www.birthdayexpress.com Jeff Nienaber
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http://www.goyami.com Adam Viener
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http://www.molanderassoc.com Jeff Molander
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http://www.corante.com/goyami/archives/2005/03/05/misperceptions_about_search_arbitrage_affiliates.p Goyami
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http://www.goyami.com Adam Viener

