The Death and Re-Birth of Book Publishing
We’re not even at the end of Q1, and 2011 has already been a rough year for the book retailers. But while retailers struggle and fold, there might be new opportunities on the horizon for publishers and authors alike, and a publishing phoenix just might still rise from the ashes of yet.
But the thing about these trends is that theyâ€™re affecting retailers more than anyone. In fact, both publishers and authors seem to be adapting to the new landscape of book publishing.
The New Publishers
The emergence of ereaders, tablets, and smart phones has fueled the growth of ebooks, and publishing is re-inventing itself. The line between books and the internet is vanishing, and while publishing houses are adopting new business models, new digital publishing houses are even emerging to challenge these incumbents.
In July 2010, ebooks started outselling hardcovers on Amazon (but not paperbacks). So itâ€™s not surprising, then, that publishing houses are moving to embrace the ebook more wholeheartedly.
Perhaps publishing houses learned from the example of the recording industry, which clung to CDs too long. But theyâ€™re actively embracing digital formats, and many publishers have changed their pricing model to accommodate the new retailers — i.e. ereader, tablet, and smart phone vendors.
And it doesnâ€™t look like publishing houses are moving too soon. The economics of ebook publishing has already attracted some new market entrants: publishers that specialize in ebooks for ereaders, tablets, and smart phones.
But these economics have not only inspired publishing houses to rethink their business model and new competition to take them on. Itâ€™s also created a new, independent breed of author.
The New Author
In January, 2010, the Huffington Post drew attention to Amanda Hocking, a 26 year-old self-publishing fiction author who has written 17 novels, published 8, and sold over 185,000 copies since April 2010 along. Hocking also topped the list of Kindle indie authors in December 2010, selling 100,000 copies in just one month.
Whatâ€™s most interesting about this list is that only six of these authors had previous print deals with major publishers. This means that itâ€™s very realistic to not only make a living from self-publishing, but become a veritable commercial success. As Novelr pointed out
itâ€™s no stretch to say â€“ at $3 per book1/70% per sale for the Kindle store â€“ that she makes a lot of money from her monthly book sales. (Perhaps more importantly: a publisher on the private Reading2.0 mailing list has said, to effect: there is no traditional publisher in the world right now that can offer Amanda Hocking terms that are better than what sheâ€™s currently getting, right now on the Kindle store, all on her own.) [emphasis not my own]
Indeed, these new writers can not only succeed without a traditional publishing house backing them, but can be even more of a success. Theyâ€™ve jumped the gate the publishing houses have erected around distribution and retail, and in the process, successfully cut-out the middleman.
Back to Market Reality
Of course, the success of these new indie authors are constrained by two market realities. First, these authors are early adopters. That is, just as TechCrunch was able to grow into the tech reporting powerhouse that it is because it started out before blogging was mainstream, these authors are pioneers who will get to claim a disproportionate stake of the frontier.
This brings us to the second reality: the publishing houses are moving in. Just as big industry moved West and brought law and order with it, so will the big publishing houses muscle in on the ebook racket. And as they do, they will flood the marketing with more titles, meaning that any aspiring author will again rely on a big backer for one thing they canâ€™t do on their own: the marketing.
Essentially, as the ebook market gets crowded, standing out in the crowd will be that much harder, and the value proposition that publishing houses will offer authors will be less about distribution and more about marketing & promotion. Now, this doesnâ€™t mean that publishinig hasnâ€™t change permanently to favor the struggling author a bit more than before.
Indie authors will still be able to sell directly and thatâ€™s important for two reasons: there will always be some writers that are lucky and/or talented enough to side-step big publishers altogether, and other authors now have a shot at attracting the attention and support of big publishers by starting out as a self-publishers of moderate commercial success that publishers subsequently see an opportunity to tap into and exploit.
Either way you look at it, these are the twilight years for brick & mortar book retailers. Physical, print books will probably always exist as novelty items. But for the great majority of their sales will be probably be driven by online orders. Neither book publishers or authors need them to get their titles into the hands of readers.