Watch Out Facebook Or You May End Up Being the Next MySpace

So Facebook did it. They became “the next MySpace,” and by proxy, the MySpace Killer. But what if being the next MySpace also meant going the way of MySpace?

Well, some new data suggest that two might go hand in hand. A recent study shows that teens might be losing interest in the social network.

So what can be the cause of all this? Well, it’s really anyone guess, but if I was placing bets, I’d put my money on the fact that Facebook is more of a set of features than an online destination.

An Aging User Base

Last month, ROI released a study that suggested many younger Facebook users are suffering from Facebook Fatigue. As the Social Times reported:

Social networks in general take up a large portion of teens’ time online – over 80% of it according to this survey. The Facebook burnout isn’t affecting all of these youthful social networkers: 90% of teens say they use social networks and prefer Facebook above all others. However, nearly a fifth of these (19%) say they use the site less often, or have stopped altogether in recent weeks. Also, 21% of those surveyed say that their friends are using Facebook less often than before.

Now, in social media, it’s also important to remember that the children are the future. So when the young give up on you, it might be cause for concern.

• First, an aging user-base is a user-base that gets closer to death everyday. And when your user-base starts dying, so do you.
• More importantly, (and immediately), when young users give up on you, it suggests that there’s something newer and better out there, and that that something is coming for your market share.

But this study doesn’t indicate where these teens might be going. After all, this trend may very well be seasonal (i.e. teens on summer vacation spending more time outdoors).

So should Facebook still be worried? Well, maybe and maybe not. It all depends on how these users are interacting with their personal network.

Features, Functions, and Friends Oh My…

The thing about Facebook is that it’s just a toolbox of bells and whistles that we use to interact with our personal networks. And the thing about toolboxes is that their contents (the tools) can be moved into another box at any moment.

Kids might be losing interest in Facebook as an online destination. But they’re surely not losing interest in (1) their social lives, (2) interactive media, and (3) using digital media to manage their social lives. So how are these young Facebook refugees “staying connected”?

Well, the obvious answer is their mobile phones. Specifically, it’s very possible that these youths are using Facebook Mobile to stay connected, and just don’t consider it the same thing as “being on Facebook.”

And as much as this might mean good news for Facebook, it could also spell disaster. For instance, how many of its features does Facebook actually own?

Currently, plenty of mobile devices come equipped with social networking apps that cross-reference your contact list with your social network profiles. This allows you to keep phone numbers, Twitter handles, and Facebook profiles all under one contact.

But there’s no reason why Facebook has to be a part of that equation. For example, future releases of Google’s Android could very well offer users Facebook-like functionality in a closed network environment — i.e. allowing you to share “status updates” and other UGC directly with your phone contacts.

Such mobile OS features could pose a serious challenge to Facebook. Not only would they represent an alternative, but they’d also skirt many of the privacy issues/controversy that Facebook has been struggling with. So it’s no wonder that Facebook might be working on a mobile OS.

The Pitfalls of Success

Becoming the next MySpace, Facebook, or Twitter is a bit like making a deal with devil. You’ll rise to glory, but before you reach to top, new technology can outpace you and render you obsolete.

If a mass Facebook-exodus happened tomorrow, all that would be left was a mountain of user data that would depreciate drastically in value with every passing day. This would be particularly troubling for the social network because that data would’ve never had a chance to mature — investors would be sitting on a mountain of junk bonds.

Of course, a handful of teenagers giving up on Facebook is hardly a death knell. And it’s not as though they’re turning to some newer, sexier, more financially viable alternative.

Facebook still probably has plenty of breathing room, and they may very well be working on the next steps in both their revenue model and user experience. For their sake, let’s just hope that Mark Zuckerberg didn’t set out to be “the next MySpace,” and if he did, let’s hope that he doesn’t get his wish.

About CT Moore

A Staff Editor here at Revenews.com, CT Moore has over 5 years experience leveraging search and social media to help brands meet their business goals online. By day, he provides SEO and social content strategy to both SMBs and enterprise level companies. CT is also an accomplished blogger, podcaster, and conference speaker who educates groups and companies about how they can leverage digital media. You can find CT on Twitter @gypsybandito.

Website: http://www.gypsybandito.com

Twitter: gypsybandito