5 Reasons iTunes Ping Will/Won’t Succeed

With with the latest release of iTunes, Apple has forayed into social networking. iTunes 10 includes Ping, a built-in social network for music.

With Apple’s recent launch of iAds, a platform that taps into iTunes’ existing user data to let advertisers target users through existing iPhone apps, Ping is an important move to grow iTunes’ social graph. Basically, Ping can end up making iTunes a lot stickier, giving both Apple and iAds advertisers more insight into how to sell to iTunes users.

All that being said, Ping can also fall flat on its face. Let’s take a look at 5 reasons why Ping can both succeed and fail.

1. Ping Launches with a Strong User Base

Will Work: With over 160 million iTunes users, Ping has a considerable head start. Indeed, a lot of social networking start-ups hit the Deadpool before they hit 1 millions (trust me, I know: I’ve worked for one).

Won’t Work: Offering an existing user-base something cool doesn’t always mean it’s going to work. Consider the number of Google users. Now, consider the number of Google’s failures and then add Google Wave to the list. Res ipsa loquitur…

2. Ping is a Value Added Component

Will Work: While most social networks are just that, Ping is a social network that plugs into an existing ecommerce suite. Users already find value in iTunes, and Ping will help them get more value out of it. In other words, while most social networks are just useless fun, Ping takes useless features and makes them useful by plugging them into an already useful tool — iTunes.

Won’t Work: Now just because you give it to them, doesn’t mean that they’re going to use it. Consider this: iTunes is like a giant online mall. But with the exception of teenagers, people don’t go to the mall to socialize, they go to the mall to shop. Basically, most users might turn out to be decidedly uninterested in socializing via iTunes.

Take Zune Social, for instance. Zune has had social features since its launch in 2006, and it still remains irrelevant. Granted, iTunes Ping boasts a user-base from the get-go, but it still goes to show that just because you offer social features beyond your core functionality, there’s no guarantee users will pick it up.

3. User Choice / Control

Will Work: Ping gives users just the kind of control that Facebook has always struggled with, and if Facebook can get it wrong and be such a success, things are looking up for Ping. As TechCrunch reports, Ping lets:

[...] you decide if you want to use the friend model, the follow model, or the lurk model.

To be more clear, Apple asks you to decide between two things: do you want to allow people to follow you, or do you want no one to be able to follow you? The latter is a nice option because you can still use Ping, you simply use it as a lurker. You can see what other people with public profiles are doing, but they can’t see what you are doing. The other option is to let people follow you — but there’s a sub option to this. You can either let anyone follow you (think: Twitter) or you can get notifications to approve everyone who wants to follow you (think: Facebook).

The kind of choice of choice and flexibility can be exactly what iTunes users need to share their social graph with Apple.

Won’t Work: Too much choice can also be a bad thing. With 3 different levels of functionality, there’s considerable room for users to misunderstand the service. Just imagine if the majority of users decided to “lurk”. Basically, a bunch of users will set-up their Ping profiles, surf around, and not find enough to make it worth their time, and Ping can end up going stagnant.

4. Ping Has Revenue Models on Toast

Will Work: Ping has one thing that many social networking start-ups lack: a revenue model. First, through Ping, Apple will be able to cross-sell and upsell iTunes users based on their social graph – i.e. “your friends like this, so you might, too.”

Second, the Ping social graph can expand on the data already available to iAds advertisers (such as purchasing habits and history). This will make iAds that much more appealing to advertisers and, potentially, that much more profitable.

Won’t Work: Okay, I can’t see any way a revenue model can work against Ping. In essence, the “value added component” it offers users pertains to iTunes sales, and iAds advertisers. From a revenue model stand point, Ping just makes sense.

5. The Ping Model Works

Will Work: Just like Facebook usurped LBS social networks, Ping capitalizes on a set of features that have already succeeded. Social music networks such as Last.fm and Pandora have already proven popular with users. But where Last.fm and Pandora have had to refer their users to third-party music stores, Ping is part and parcel of a music store that’s already popular. In fact, if I were Last.fm and Pandora, I’d be worried.

Won’t Work: The fact that other music social networks have been so successful also poses a bit of a barrier to iTunes’ Ping. Consider how Twitter has continued to grow and flourish despite Facebook patenting and integrating the news feed.

For instance, Last.fm and/or Pandora users have invested years in their favorites, friend lists, and preferences. Although this won’t prevent them from trying out Ping, it does make it less likely that they abandon their other accounts altogether. That means they’ll be less likely to move their music socializing away from their existing services over to Ping.

Anyone’s Guess

The fact of the matter is that we can look at Ping any which way. And in the end, it can be a huge success, a mild success, or a complete flop. I guess the best we can do is look at all the variables, place our bets, and hope for the best.

But if you were going to give Ping 1 point for a “will work” point above and -1 point for a “won’t work” point, how would you score Ping’s potential?