Coming Soon – The Splinternet
I’ve learned to take IT consulting firms’ predictions with a grain of salt. Sometimes these firms come up with provocative stuff for the purpose of selling their consulting services and research reports. They may not always have a real understanding of where things are going.
One firm that’s consistently accurate and level-headed, however, is Forrester Research. Forrester has been around for over 25 years and they’re well-respected. That’s why I found their latest blog about the coming of a new computing age of particular interest.
Forrester’s Josh Bernoff uses the recent launch of Apple’s iPad as motivation to discuss the growing problem of incompatibility between the current rash of devices (Android, iPad, iPhone, Kindle, etc.) and web connectivity. “Your site may not work right on these devices,” says Bernoff, “especially if it includes Flash or assumes mouse-based navigation. Apps that work on the iPhone don’t work on the Android. Widgets for FiOS TV don’t work anywhere else.”
Bernoff says this phenomenon is just part of the problem. In addition to device incompatibility, there seems to be more closed than open systems on the Web, no doubt for competitive reasons. Facebook’s applications, for example, only work on Facebook.
“Web marketing has grown since 1995,” says Bernoff, “based on the idea that everything is connected. Click-throughs, ad networks, analytics, search-engine optimization – it all works because the Web is standardized. Google works because the Web is standardized. Not any more. Each new device has its own ad networks, format, and technology. Each new social site has its login and many hide content from search engines.”
The result is something Forrester Research labels the “Splinternet.” The firm believes the end of the cross-platform compatibility web era is near.
Forrester offers as proof of the Splinternet’s existence the fact that technology standards once controlled by open standards bodies such as the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) will now be controlled by platform vendors like Apple and Facebook. On the Internet, advertising and user experience side, they suggest that cookie-based customization is being replaced by profile-based customization, and that standard ad formats will now have to be customized for sites and networks that are acceptable to the new devices.
How interesting – here we thought in our multi-option digital world that we were moving towards enhanced inter-connectivity and compatibility. It turns out the opposite may be true.
But Bernoff cautions Internet marketers not to jump off a cliff just yet. Instead, he says, “choose your devices carefully – investments in one cannot be transferred easily to others if you make a mistake. Rethink analytics, links, and measurement – — they’re just becoming available in the new environments.”
Still, I can see a lot of online marketers getting palpitations and sweaty palms right now.
