Attention- What Google CPA Really Means…

The answer is right in the title…

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has added yet another beta service, Google CPA, for advertisers and for Adsense publishers to deploy. We all knew it was coming, but no one really knows what it means. There has been a lot of prognostication in the blogosphere (which will go the way of the microblog platform one day) so I am going to join in the prognostication.

Rather than draw upon Google’s official source about the beta test or the opinion Google is all about direct marketing, or how it may change the “structure of the web” I am going to focus on the “big picture”. Their wide range of seemingly disparate services and a recent, and hardly noticed acquisition of a data visualization company.

The End of “Affiliates” and Small Publishers

No. If anything the publishers who can change, handle disruption and can dominate a niche will benefit from a wide range of offerings.

Sam Harrelson pens an ominous sounding headline over at CostPerNews. “Google and CPA: “It Starts With an Earthquake, Birds and Snakes…” The reference is not lost on me…

These are lyrics to REM’s smash hit- It’s The End of The World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

That’s great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane and Lenny Bruce is not afraid.
Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn – world serves its own needs, dummy serve your own needs.
Feed it off an aux speak, grunt, no, strength, Ladder start to clatter with fear fight down height.
Wire in a fire, representing seven games, a government for hire and a combat site.
Left of west and coming in a hurry with the furies breathing down your neck.
Team by team reporters baffled, trumped, tethered cropped.
Look at that low playing! Fine, then.
Uh oh, overflow, population, common food, but it’ll do.
Save yourself, serve yourself.
World serves its own needs, listen to your heart bleed dummy with the rapture and the revered and the right, right.
You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched.

It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

Sam pens…

…inventory is the life blood of these networks and the amount of inventory that is available is exponentially increasing (doubling every few weeks).

Google is not out to get the CPA affiliate or network space… they are combining attention metrics with actionable results to create a hybrid which CJ and Linkshare don’t track.

The CPA metric, not the networks themselves, are what’s in danger…

I agree with him- it is all about “The New Metrics”. With user generated content, microchunking, platforms like Twitter, and the ability to mashup and mixup varied content the amount of inventory will be staggering. Sites and links are a somewhat silly concept when you look at what is on the horizon. It doesn’t totally matter where you are or where you message from- unleash the content to where the people are, monetize it, syndicate it, push it out…The users will decide for themselves how they want to consume your content. Quality will count.

Google Buys Data Visualization Company

If we look at the recent acquisitions we see Google buying a stake in China’s Xunlei, a peer-to-peer file sharing service in January 2007. In February of 2007 they acquire Adscape, an in-game advertising firm. The most interesting is perhaps March and hails from Stockholm.

Google bought Stockholm-based non-profit Gapminder ‘s primary product- Trendalyzer. According to the company Trendalyzer, “unveils the beauty of statistics by converting boring numbers into enjoyable interactive animations.” It is notable the Trendalyzer team is packing up and moving to the Mountain View campus. You can read more at Forbes.

I am sure it will be used in a number of different ways, and many according to Gapminder’s original mission. It will also enhance the current Google products too. However, if we speculate a little it could also be the block and tackle to build Google’s future revenue streams- the carburetor, or perphaps the exhaust system for what I call “The Attention Engine”.

The Attention Engine and Its Golden Byproducts

Google possesses the raw networking power and speed to take in massive amounts of data, churn it all and splice it together. This “Attention Engine” is where the real revenue stream of the future will be.

Any engine needs fuel and Google has created a diverse array of sources to kick start the engine: Personalized homepages, News aggregator, Blogger, Calender, Dodgeball, Gmail, Google Maps, JotSpot, Docs & Spreadsheets, Browser Sync, Personalized homepages, news aggregator, Blogger, Calender, Dodgeball, Gmail, Google Maps, JotSpot, Docs & Spreadsheets, Browser Sync, Orkut, Page Creator, Picasa Web Albums, Picasa, YouTube, Joga Bonito, Analytics, Adsense, Adwords, Audio Ads, Click-to-Call, Website Optimizer,Video Player,SketchUp, Google Talk,SMS, Notifier, Web Accelerator, Google Desktop, Google Earth, Music Trends,…

Oh we haven’t really hit search- let’s just scratch search- Google Scholar, Patent Search, News Archive Search, Search History, U.S. Government Search, university Search, Zeitgeist, Video search, Google Trends…search will be less important in the future as social media takes over. Google must know this.

Some of these services are fossil fuels that will burn out and be replaced, some are windmills, solar collectors, fusion engines…it is all about sustainable fuel for the Attention Engine. The engine’s byproducts are not waste either- the byproduct is revenue. Revenue generated by selling what advertiser’s have never really had- not only a highly efficient targeting system that ensures the right placement no matter the medium, but what is coming down the pipe, what decision is a good one or a bad one. The Attention Engine will know.

Here is the soothsayer who is not concerned with the immediate impact of Google and CPA- the transient stage. The deal structure doesn’t matter. The future is…

- All about niche

- Completely data-centric

- The real currency will be “attention”

- Every Google service will be an avenue or power source to feed the “attention engine”

- All advertisers, affiliates, publishers, even the every-day user are avenues to the “attention engine”

- These new “attention metrics” will be on par with something we have never seen before.

It IS the end of the world as we know it…I’ll toss my some lyrics from one of my favorite bands into the pyre.

Though the winds of change may blow around you, but that will always be so.
When love is pain it can devour you, if you are never alone.

Remember- Attention = Revenue. I think I mentioned that a couple of days ago. Brian Clark said it in 2004 and probably much, much earlier.

ADDENDUM:
James Omdahl’s Insureme Blog has a short bullet list of various opinions around the Web for further reading.